The Possible Impact of Demographics on China’s GDP Growth to 2045

Demographics, unlike economic variables, tend to be relatively stable in trend and can be forecast with exceptionally high levels of reliability. Even a pandemic such as Covid does not significantly change the overall future population profile.  For that reason, forecasts based on demographic trends provide an excellent underpinning to future planning.  The more variable aspects (such as trade balance) can then be overlaid on that.

This paper looks at how demographics may potentially impact the GDP growth rate of China through to 2035 – with some long-term views to 2045 where viable and relevant. It demonstrates how some inevitable changes to the size and growth of the labour force, as well as skill level and resources per worker, will have significant implications for the economy’s future growth as measured by GDP.

Given the inevitable nature of these changes, companies would be well advised to factor them into their long-term scenarios.

The report is 24 pages, a pdf file with text, charts and tables.


Table of Contents

  • The Possible Impact of Demographics on China’s GDP Growth. ….1
  • Global Demographics Ltd. ……………………………………………………….1
  • Table of Contents. …………………………………………………………………..3
  • Introduction. ………………………………………………………………………….4
  • The Historical Trend in Total Real GDP (in Reminibi) ……………….5
  • The Demographic Drivers – History. …………………………………………5
  • The Supply of Labour. …………………………………………………………….6
  • The Education Profile of the Workforce. …………………………………..8
  • The Accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per worker. …………….9
  • Converting Working-age Persons into Workers. ………………………12
  • The Drivers and Productivity. ………………………………………………..13
  • Part II:  The Forecast. ……………………………………………………………14
  • Future Trends in the Working Age Population. ………………………..14
  • Turning Working-Age Persons into Workers – The Forecast. ……16
  • A more conservative Scenario – Propensity to be Employed
    declines to global norms. ……………………………………………………….18
  • Productivity trends. ………………………………………………………………19
  • Productivity as a function of  the drivers (education and
    accumulated Fixed Capital Investment per worker) …………………22
  • Total Real GDP forecast. ……………………………………………………….24

Date Published is 1st June 2022

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