Are Declining Total Births Really a Disaster for a Country – The Japan Scenario.

To state the obvious, the number of births each year determines the number of children, the size of the working-age population 15 to 20 years later (depending on the availability of education), and ultimately the size of the ageing population some 70 years later.

Given the significant impact of changes in the number of births per annum over time, particularly in older and more affluent countries, examining the long-term effects of declining total births is crucial. This paper aims to do just that, using Japan as an example.

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