Step One:
Loading Data into the Model

To set up the model you must

  • 1. Select the country to be used. The options shown in the drop down box will be a function of which data sets you have subscribed to.
  • 2. Select the years to be displayed in the main output grid.

The base year is constrained to the last year for which actual data exists for that country (currently 2019).

The future year can be any value after 2019 and up to 2045 (inclusive).

Finally, click on the ‘Setup’ Button to load the data. This normally takes only a few seconds, but it is refreshing the underlying data blocks and the screen will switch between different sheets momentarily.. However, you are returned to the main page once finished.

Household Income Distribution

  • At the top right of the main model is a section showing the distribution of households by income.
  • There are five income steps.
  • You can redefine the break points used for the country selected. Simply change the values in the highlighted box. The model will then use those breaks when solving the scenario.
  • You must set these values before you run the scenario.

To view the entire series of any individual variable

The main model sheet only shows the values of individual variables for the two years selected to be displayed.

However, you can see the full series for that variable (from2005to 2045) by clicking on the button in the box for that variable. The button is labelled as either ‘Change’ if it is a determinant variable or ‘See Detail’ if not. In either case you are taken to the page shown below.

To simply return to the main model sheet click on the Bottom button labelled ‘Return to model - no change’.

If you want to change the variable (if it is a determinant variable) then see the next section of this manual.


By 2045

The total population of China is projected to decline to 1.378 billion persons - down from 1.411 in 2020 (Census). This assumes the average birth rate per thousand women aged 15 to 49 increases from 44 (in 2019) to 50 in 2024 and then declines to 46 by 2045, reflecting trends in improved education and affluence.

Annual births in 2024 are expected to be 15.7 million and are projected to decline to 12.4 million by 2035 and 11.541 million by 2045.

For more information on births in China, see our Special report on this topic

Learn more