TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 : WHY CHINA’S DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE? 20

  • Introduction 20

  • The structure of this book 23

    • Chapter 2: The Present 23

    • Chapter Three: Overall Population Trends 26

    • Chapter Four: Urban and Rural Populations 28

    • Chapter Five: The Evolving Consumer and Household Profile 31

    • Chapter Six: Education 32

    • Chapter Seven: The Labour force. 34

    • Chapter Eight: Demographics and GDP 37

    • Chapter Nine: Household incomes 39

    • Chapter Ten: Household Expenditure 42

    • Chapter Eleven: Health Care 45

    • To conclude 46

CHAPTER 2 : THE PRESENT 47

  • Key Points in this Section are: 47

  • Introduction 49

  • Geographical organization of the population 51

  • The Rural-Urban Migration 53

  • The Existing Size and Age Profile of the Population 55

  • Gender Balance and Age 59

  • Age Profile and Changing Life Stage Segments 60

    • Urban Age / Life Stage Profile 64

    • Rural Age/Life Stage Profile 66

  • Housing. 67

  • The Labour Force 68

  • Education 71

  • Health 73

  • Household Incomes 73

    • Average and Median Household Incomes 74

    • Distribution of Households by Gross Income Segments 76

    • Propensity to Save/Spend 79

    • Consumer Spending 81

  • The provinces 82

  • The Cities 85

  • To Conclude 88

CHAPTER 3 OVERALL POPULATION TRENDS 89

  • Key Points in this Section Are: 89

  • Introduction 91

  • The Projected Total Population Trend 93

  • The Changing Overall Age Profile 95

  • Births 99

    • The Birth Rate 99

    • The Number of Women Aged 15 to 49 years 104

    • Total Births 107

    • The Birth Rate Scenarios 108

    • To Conclude 121

    • Methodology Note: 122

  • Deaths 123

  • Gender Issues 124

  • Province Level Population Scenario and Changes 127

  • Summary 130

CHAPTER 4 URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS 132

  • Key Points in This Section are: 132

  • Introduction 133

  • Projected Growth of the Urban Population to 2045. 135

  • Age Profile of the Urban and Rural Populations in 2020 139

  • Projected Change in the Size of Key Age Segments to 2045 141

    • Urban 141

    • Rural 144

  • Implications for Housing. 146

  • The Cities 149

  • Summary 151

CHAPTER 5 THE EVOLVING CONSUMER AND HOUSEHOLD PROFILE 154

  • Key Points in this Section are: 154

  • Introduction: 155

  • First – A Measurement Issue 156

  • The Number of Households 157

  • The Number of Persons in the Household 159

  • Households with Children 161

  • The Age/Lifestyle Stages 163

    • Urban Age / Life Stage Profile. 166

    • Rural Age / Life Stage Profile. 170

  • The provinces 171

  • Summary: 174

CHAPTER 6 EDUCATION 175

  • Key Points in this Section are: 175

  • Introduction 176

  • The Historic and Current Education Profile 178

  • Education Index and Productivity 182

  • Education Index for China 184

  • China’s Global Position on Education 187

  • The provinces. 189

  • Summary 193

CHAPTER 7 THE LABOUR FORCE 195

  • Key Points in this Section are: 195

  • Introduction: 197

    • Changing Working Age Parameters 198

    • Propensity to be employed. 201

  • Implications for the Size of the Labour Force 205

    • The Rural Labour Force 206

    • The Urban Labour force. 209

  • The changing Age and Education profile of the urban worker 213

  • Implications in Terms of the Overall Supply of Labour 214

    • Workers per Household and Implication for Household income. 215

    • Dependents per Worker 216

    • The proportion of the population that is employed. 218

    • Employment and Fixed Capital Investment 218

  • Summary 220

CHAPTER 8 DEMOGRAPHICS AND GDP 224

  • Key Points in this Section are: 224

  • Introduction 226

  • The Demographic Drivers – Labour Supply and Education 228

    • The Supply of Labour 228

    • Education 232

  • The Economic Driver of Productivity and GDP 234

    • Fixed Capital Investment 235

    • Projected Trend in Productivity, Labour Force and Total GDP 236

  • The provinces. 242

    • Education 242

    • Fixed Capital Investment per Worker per Annum 244

    • Productivity per Worker 247

    • Total Real GDP and Growth Rates by Province 248

  • Summary 250

CHAPTER 9 HOUSEHOLD INCOMES 252

  • Key Points in this Section are: 252

  • Introduction and Methodology Revisited 255

    • Expenditure Component 255

  • Historic and Projected levels of Household Income and wages 258

    • Average and Median Incomes 258

    • Distribution of Households by Income 260

    • Wages 263

    • Private Consumption Expenditure as a Proportion of GDP and Propensity to Spend 264

  • Forecasting Household Incomes 266

  • The Distribution of Households by Income 272

    • First a methodology point 272

    • Urban Households 273

    • Rural Households 274

    • The relative value of the urban income segments 275

  • Combing Age / Life Stage Change with Changing Affluence 276

  • The provinces. 279

    • Average Urban Household Income by Province 279

    • Province Share of Total Earned Urban Household Income 281

    • Province Share of Affluent Households 282

  • The Cities where the Affluent Households are located. 283

  • Summary 285

CHAPTER 10 : HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE PATTERNS 287

  • Key Points in this Section are: 287

  • Introduction 288

  • Overall propensity to spend by Income level. 290

    • Propensity to Spend and Spending Pattern 292

  • Total Market Size and Growth by Expenditure Category and Income Segment 297

  • The provinces 301

    • The Relative Importance of Provinces in terms of Spending 301

    • The difference in Spending Patterns by Province 302

  • Summary 304

CHAPTER 11 HEALTH EXPENDITURE 306

  • Introduction 306

  • The Potential Demand for healthcare in China 307

    • The Incidence/Prevalence of Oncology and Chronic Conditions 307

    • The Age Profile of the Population 310

    • Index of potential Healthcare Demand 311

  • The Future Cost of Health Care and Who Pays. 313

    • Projected total expenditure on health 314

    • Who Pays? 318

  • Summary 320

CHAPTER 12 IN CONCLUSION 322

  • Introduction 322

  • The Three Child Policy 323

  • The Changing Life Stage Profile of the Population 326

    • The Child Segment 329

    • The Young Adult 330

    • The Family Stage Age Segment 331

    • The Working-age empty Nester 332

    • The Retired Segment 332

  • The Changing Pattern of Affluence 334

  • Share of Value. 337

  • The Labour Force – it is not shrinking (at least not where it is important). 339

  • To Conclude 343

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY 344

Sources 344

  • Cleaning 345

  • Timeliness of Data 346

  • Modelling 347

  • Overall population change 348

  • Education Profile of the adult population 350

  • Household Size 350

  • Labour Force 351

  • GDP Forecast 351

  • Household Incomes 353

APPENDIX B: DEFINITIONS 356

  • The Hukou 356

  • The One-Child Policy 357

  • Provinces, Prefectures, Counties, Cities, Towns, Townships and Villages 359

  • Urban and Rural 360