The Potential Impact of Changes to China’s One Child Policy

A Special Report looking at three different scenarios in terms of the potential of couples of childbearing age having a second or third child now that the one-child policy has been changed to allow ‘up to three’.

The impact of this is uncertain as there is little data on the willingness of couples to have more than one child and none on the desire for three. This paper looks at different scenarios in terms of birth rates and their implications of them for the size of the total population and working-age population in future years.

The report is 20 pages, a pdf file with text, charts and tables.


Table of Contents

  • Introduction …………………………………………………….5
  • History …………………………………………………………..5
  • The Forecasts ………………………………………………….11
  • Forecast Scenarios ……………………………………………12
  • The Results …………………………………………………….14
  • Implications for the overall population ……………………..17
  • Implication for the Working Age Population ……………….18
  • Implication for the long-term size of the
    Child Market (0-14 year olds) ……………………………….19
  • To Conclude …………………………………………………..20
  • Methodology Note: ………………………………………….20
  • Tables for each key variable by year 2015 to 2045 ………21

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